Update #5: Bankroll Progress for January '10

Bankroll: $908.99
Profit for the Month: $828.38

At the beginning of the month, the goal was to reach 200$. As you can see by the screenshot and graph, I achieved that goal EARLY in the month and went incredibly far beyond my expectations. So I am overwhelmed with how much progress I made this month - it is very exciting. I have essentially made up for HALF my deficits that I had before beginning the challenge. However, along the ride, I also made disappointing decisions. This update will highlight the ride of this month; the ups, the downs, advice, and plans for the next month.

It is amazing to me that at the beginning of this month I had 80$. If I were to go back to January 1, I wouldn't even think it PLAUSIBLE that I could be within a week's distance of the 1,000$ mark. At this point, I am allowing myself to play 20$ sit and go's - a long shot from the $0.25 sit and go's I started with. I am also playing alot of $.10 / $.25 cash games, with the occassional $.25 / $.50 game. Finally, I have played lots of MTTs around 10$, but taking shots as high as the 50$ daily eighty grand.

However, I have found myself in some very disappointing situations along this month that essentially nearly ruined the challenge. I was starting to find myself returning to my old habits and sitting at cash games that exceeded my comfort. I sat down at 1$ / 2$ tables and even a $5 / $10 table once! These were 100% AGAINST my principles of bankroll management. To me, they effectively may have ruined this challenge, because I can no longer say that I have fully followed bankroll management along the entire way. These instances, which at times nearly costed me my entire bankroll, allowed for me to earn about 500$. I found this to be very disheartening and against the spirit of this challenge, and decided to resolve it so that I would never do something stupid like that again. I could just as easily be broke.

In my reflecting on how I can avoid regressing to bad habits, I found a decent solution: I developed a mathematical equation that would foster bankroll growth AND bankroll management. I will not go into depth of what it is here, but you may find my post in the TwoPlusTwo forums here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/resource-building-bankroll-supplemental-function-692803/. So, after I developed the equation, I implemented it into excel (directions on how to do that are in the post) and made it the trendline to the graph that I've been using (top of this post).

This equation basically gives a sample "success line" bankroll on a daily basis. It is designed so that I complete this challenge in 550 days from the start date. So, for example, on day 45 into the challenge, it suggests I should have a bankroll $286.61, and on day 46, $293.60 (a change of 7$). This is a rather conservative increase for such a bankroll, but the reason for this is to allow you to overcome days where you LOSE money. This trendline is a gradual growth in bankroll that does not clearly show any slumps or fast rises, but the median of them, which is profitable. When designing the equation, I decided that any time I finished the day with more money than this success bankroll, I could either

A) Cashout
B) "Take a shot" in a MTT (e.g., play a 55$ tournament).

Already I have cashed out once, and I have taken some shots (with positive results) in such tourneys as the Daily 80 grand. Right now, the equation suggests I should be at $522. Therefore, I am able to cashout nearly 400$! I have not decided how I am going to use this extra cash, but I may not cash out or spend it on a higher stake MTT, but just continue the challenge and try finishing about a month faster. Since the equation is designed to force me to endure the learning curve of climbing stakes, I really should cashout. If I run a bit badly, I will cash it all out and stick to the success trendline. In summary it has been extremely useful so far and cured my regression - recommended for anyone going such a challenge. If you are, let me know and I will make it custom to meet your goals.

This next month should prove interesting. It is hard to say where I will be at the end of the month. If I follow the success line, adjusted to my current bankroll, then a reasonable goal for the end of the month is $1,300, where I can play up to 30$ Sit and Go's (note my goal for the end of this month was to reach 3$ Sit and Go's!!). This is much a net gain much less than this month, but I have to keep in mind that this month was perhaps a bit of a heater, seeing I could survive some terrible decisions. I think it goes without saying that my challenge for this next month is to have the discipline to stick to good management and patiently climb these stakes. January was enough of a wild ride!

1,000$ has been the first long term goal of this project; I am hoping to be there very soon. The next long term goal is ~$4,200. At this point, I will be able to play at the $.50 / 1$ - this is the beginning of the tables where I have lost my bankroll many, many times! I will also have access to tournaments and Sit and Go's with buyins as high as 100$! In my opinion, a starting bankroll of $4,200 gives you great potential to make a decent enough profit. As a college student, I could consider myself a part-time poker player at that point, but we'll see. This point in project may take until the end of the year.

February - a month with returning stability? Hopefully.

By the way, in the WBCOOP, it should be noted I played only 1 event (preliminary #1), and earned an 11$ ticket to the SCOOP. A few other random comments to be noted:

-Cashout #1: -$26.77
-Transfered money: -$10
-Donation to Haiti: -$10
-Achieved Silver Star VIP level (hoping to simply maintain)
-Either using FPPs for the pokerstars store, or as satellites